Fansided

Liberty vs. Aces prediction and odds for Thursday, Aug. 17 (New York remains undervalued)

By Peter Dewey

Aug 6, 2023; Brooklyn, New York, USA; New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) celebrates after the Las Vegas Aces call time out in the third quarter at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 6, 2023; Brooklyn, New York, USA; New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) celebrates after the Las Vegas Aces call time out in the third quarter at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

The New York Liberty beat the Las Vegas Aces for the second time in as many meetings on Tuesday, winning their first WNBA Commissioner’s Cup in the process.

New York is on fire right now, winning six straight games and nine of its last 10 to open up a three-game lead in the Eastern Conference. While the Liberty are still behind the Aces in overall record, they are showing that they are legit threats to win the title this season.

Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and company have not only beat the Aces in their last two meetings, they’ve handled them easily.

New York won by 38 back on Aug. 6 before winning Tuesday’s game by 19 points. The Aces – the league’s No. 1 offense – scored just 61 and 63 points in those games.

A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum and the Aces have been dominant all season long, but have they met their match in the Liberty?

Oddsmakers have favored the Aces on Thursday at home, but that may not be the best bet to make:

Liberty vs. Aces odds, run line and total

Liberty vs. Aces prediction and pick

The Liberty were seven-point underdogs against the Aces in the Commissioner’s Cup Final, yet they ended up winning by 19. Now, they find themselves in a similar spot as 6.5-point dogs on Thursday night.

Not only has New York won six straight games, but the team has also covered the spread in five straight. On the season, the Liberty are 2-1 against the spread as an underdog, with all three of those games coming against Las Vegas or Connecticut.

The Aces have not lost back-to-back games all season, but do they cover the spread in this spot? I’m not so sure.

Oddsmakers are still expecting the Aces to win by two possessions or more, a tall task when this loaded Liberty team is clicking.

Both of these teams have the star power, and they rank No. 1 and No. 2 in many key statistical categories.

The trends tell us that Las Vegas (11-5 against the spread at home) is the bet to make, but I’m going to fade that and take the league’s hottest team to keep this one close.

—

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey’s betting record here.